Challenges for 2025
After the so called ‘year of elections’ we are not much further on in Ireland, in the UK, in Europe or elsewhere in the world.
In Ireland the contribution by Philip McGuinness on the lack of interest in the South on policy on the North leaves unresolved the clash between those who argue for unification referendums as soon as possible and those who want to know what kind of unification they are voting on. The contribution by Tom Hadden sets out an alternative approach to a shared Ireland led by the two governments rather than waiting for serious discussion between nationalists and unionists, though some may think this would undermine the commitment in the Good Friday Agreement to simple majority voting on a binary issue. The contributions by Katy Hayward and Blair Horan likewise point to continuing uncertainty on the way forward on economic and trade issues affecting both parts of our divided island.
Much of this is due to uncertainty on what President Trump and his new team will actually prioritise not only on trade but also on wider foreign policy issues, not least the wars in Palestine and Ukraine and the reconstitution of Syria. Here too the focus will inevitably be on ‘great power’ negotiation – much of it based on the outcome of actual or prospective military confrontations – rather than a democratic resolution of power struggles in contested territories. This is not just about Palestine and Israel, Lebanon and Syria, Sudan and Ethiopia, Afghanistan and Pakistan, but now also Korea, Myanmar and elsewhere.
Underlying much of this are the growing problems resulting from the mass movements of refugees and economic migrants that are causing new political and economic strains in many established states. Whether these problems can be resolved by shoring up established ‘nation state’ structures is doubtful. A better approach may be to focus on international cooperation and burden sharing led by the United Nations and other regional institutions. The price for peace and stability is often a willingness to accept and provide for needed change.
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