The shock arrest of the then DUP leader for serious sex offences has thrown the party, and Northern Irish political world, into turmoil. Donaldson was swiftly removed from his position as leader and has been suspended from the DUP, although he remains an MP as the DUP do not have any legal power to force him from that post. Our thoughts must rest with the alleged victims who have brought such serious allegations and it should be noted that Donaldson denies the allegations and people would be wise to keep in mind that idle speculation about the details of the case can impact the judicial proceedings.

This article will turn its focus on the potential electoral fallout for the party, but there is much that we do not know about how the DUP will react. What appears relatively likely is that Gavin Robinson, the MP for Belfast East, will make his jump from deputy leader to interim-leader a permanent one in the next few weeks.

This was not a guarantee, but the party looks like it wants to avoid bringing any further negative attention to itself. The issue of the sea-border deal that was agreed in acrimonious circumstances just a few weeks looks to have been put on the back burner as the DUP lurches into full-on self-preservation mode. The party will remain in the power-sharing executive and the other parties will be careful to allow the judicial system to do its job.

The DUP had just returned to a government with a large number of issues bearing down on it, from NHS waiting lists to pay disputes across the health, education and transport sector. The party also has the thorny issue of Casement Park to navigate. This is a potentially expensive redevelopment – albeit part-funded by the GAA and Irish government – which will allow Belfast to host matches at the 2028 Euros. The UK government is also likely to assist but are yet to put a number on their commitment. Controversially, it will primarily be a GAA stadium which has drawn the ire of some who feel that it is more beneficial to nationalists than unionists.

Most in the DUP have tried to eschew the GAA element and instead focused on the question of whether it’s a good use of public funds. The party has recently made some highly publicised overtures towards the nationalist community with images of Paul Givan Irish dancing and emerging on the same day that Emma Little-Pengelly played camogie with Michelle O’Neill. These appeared to be aimed at demonstrating that the DUP was committed to building a cross community Northern Ireland, and earned them the label of ‘DUP Nua’ by their detractors.
The party felt it had secured its hardline flank, and so was turning its attention to winning back more liberal unionists who had defected to the UUP and Alliance in recent years. Recent polling suggested this plan was working.

But their newest problem is not going to fade any time soon and will hurt them all across the ideological spectrum. We already know that an initial hearing is scheduled for later in April and there are potentially more to follow before the next election in October/November, each will inevitably lead the headlines.

The Next Election

The DUP will be under pressure for a number of reasons – all with the same cause. Their voters are likely to be deeply unmotivated to turnout and others will feel deeply betrayed and may want to join the backlash. Whilst their rivals will be emboldened and enraged. The perceived hypocrisy of such a scandal happening to the (then) leader of the ‘holier-than-thou’ party adds to this anger – even though the allegations are solely against the individual and his wife. There is also likely to be an unusually high degree of anti-DUP tactical voting.

There had been speculative talk of electoral ‘arrangements’ (pacts to everyone else) with the UUP about standing a single candidate in certain locations to avoid splitting the unionist vote. The incentives for the UUP to do something which would help the DUP are much lower now, although we could still see them support the independent Alex Easton in North Down and possibly the DUP dropping out in favour of the UUP in Fermanagh-South Tyrone. Neither would help the DUP but could give unionists chances to gain some seats in an otherwise difficult election.

Last week the DUP already had very few chances for gaining seats: possibly the only one was in Belfast North. That’s over now.

Instead the party will be on the defensive. Some, and here I mean Lagan Valley, are basically lost. Until last week, Lagan Valley was one of the safest seats in the country but now Alliance’s Sorcha Eastwood may as well start organising her office in London. She might even get to move in earlier if he resigns as an MP which would force a summer by-election. Alternatively, the House of Commons Standards Committee could start the slow process of removing him. However they will be careful not to interfere with the ongoing legal case so this route could end up running into the next election anyway.
A much more marginal DUP seat which Alliance were already confident about is Belfast East, that seems more likely now and would cost the DUP’s newest leader his seat. If this happens a game of musical-chairs to co-opt Robinson into the Assembly will be needed to avoid yet another leadership contest in a party which has already lurched through four leaders in the last three years. For those keeping track, yes, that’s even more than the UK Conservative party (3).

Other DUP seats like South Antrim could be under serious threat by the UUP, while Alliance could take East Antrim – particularly if the TUV contested the constituency in which Jim Allister now lives. The TUV, spurred on by their allies in Reform, could give the DUP headaches in a few of their safest seats, like Strangford (at risk to Alliance), Upper Bann and East Londonderry (both to Sinn Féin).

Again, for those keeping track, that’s every single DUP seat except for North Antrim. It’s too early to tell if the most apocalyptic version of this comes to pass – and I would be surprised if it was quite this bad – but the nature of allegations against the then party leader would pose a major problem for any party. Exactly how bad it gets will come down to how much and how quickly the DUP can distance themselves from their former leader. Deleting his name from their website will not be enough.

The Other Parties

The other parties have seats to fight over too, and not just against the DUP.

The SDLP are under threat in both of their seats and have no chance of gains. Foyle was a clear victory for the party last time around but there were extenuating circumstances which allowed them to flip what had been a Sinn Féin seat. Today’s more emboldened Sinn Féin will likely reclaim it.

Sinn Féin have a decision to make on whether to give the SDLP an easy run in Belfast South or to put their nationalist rivals at risk of a wipe out – even if it opens the door for a non-nationalist. If Sinn Féin opt to contest Belfast South then all bets are off, an agreed unionist candidate would defeat a divided field, but if all major parties stand candidates then it would likely become a straight fight between the SDLP and Alliance. Sinn Féin are all but guaranteed to be the largest party at every electoral level after the next election – a little noticed aside is that Donaldson’s suspension from the DUP means the two are currently tied on 7 each at Westminster.

The UUP’s chance of retaking South Antrim could create challenges for them, too. Robin Swann returned to his post as Health Minister which brought him widespread acclaim during the pandemic. However this sparked rumours of unrest within the UUP as some MLAs are said to have preferred joining the SDLP in opposition. Meanwhile, Swann has also announced that he will contest the next general election in South Antrim. This would likely lead to his resignation as both MLA and Health Minister, leaving the UUP with a difficult decision: go into opposition six months after going into government, or appoint a reluctant MLA to the most challenging ministerial post. The UUP could also stand a chance in Fermanagh – South Tyrone, especially if Sinn Féin run someone with less clout than Michelle Gildernew as she attempts to become an MEP in the Republic.

Alliance have the largest number of pick up opportunities so could come back as clearly the third largest party in terms of seats – and second if the sky falls down on the DUP. Although this is far from guaranteed, their only current seat in North Down is not safe, but East Antrim, Belfast East, Belfast South are all genuine opportunities for gains if their rivals fail to agree pacts and DUP turnout craters. Alliance is the only surety in this regard; the party does not do pacts and will contest every constituency. From it being the second safest DUP seat last week, Lagan Valley is now probably their safest bet going into the election.

Predicting constituencies this far out is difficult at the best of times, but it is something of a fool’s errand before we know if and where pacts are in play and how severe the fallout will be. That said, it looks as though Sinn Féin will emerge as the largest party and cement their place as Northern Ireland’s largest party. However much may happen in the as-yet-unspecified period of time before the next election which could swing some seats, indeed more seats could flip this year than in most of our recent general elections – pact dependent, of course.