- Grow a Globally Competitive and Sustainable Economy
- Deliver More Affordable, Accessible, High-Quality Early Learning and Childcare
- Cut Health Waiting Times
- Ending Violence Against Women and Girls
- Better Support for Children and Young People with Special Educational Needs
- Provide More Social, Affordable and Sustainable Housing
- Safer Communities
- Protecting Lough Neagh and the Environment
- Reform and Transformation of Public Services
Although boldly stating – without any evidence – that the Executive will ‘continue to tackle inequalities’, the PfG fails to include an anti-poverty strategy among the nine priorities, notwithstanding that the anti-poverty lobby has been calling for one for at least the last 20 years.
The report is full of platitudes: ‘we will tackle low productivity’, ‘we will make this a more vibrant and inclusive place’, ‘we will help people returning to the labour market’, and ‘we will make progress on the development of Casement Park.’
There is no attempt to link the PfG to other policy areas, reflecting a silo mentality. For example, it notes that obesity costs the NHS in Northern Ireland £500 million a year and that the programme ‘will prioritise sports and physical activities’ but there is no mention of the role of the Public Health Agency and its stated aims in reducing obesity.
There are no clearly defined targets to assess whether any of the priorities will have been achieved by the end of the mandate. Alongside the PfG, the Executive published a wellbeing dashboard containing eight items of wellbeing cross-tabulated with over 800 demographic and other variables. This we are told will be used ‘to ensure that we continue to address the needs of the changing population when developing and delivering our polices’. But these are subjective measures and may change independently of any government activity and are no substitute for clear targets and outcomes.
There is also no link between the PfG and the published draft budget for 2025–26 and none of the nine priorities are fully costed. While some notional figures are provided for some aspect of a priority, for example, £25 million to support parents with child care, in total these only amount to a fraction of the NI’s total budget of £19.5 billion.
The Fiscal Council in reviewing the draft budget has recently pointed out that there are several interventions which would ease the budgetary pressure. Number one is the introduction of water charges and/or increases in the Regional Rate.
In 2007/2008 I chaired the Independent Water Review Panel. We recommended that NI Water should not be privatised but should become a Municipal Company and that water charges should be introduced based on the rates. Our recommendations were rejected because it was claimed that they would adversely affect the poor despite including a comprehensive scheme to help those on low incomes.
As there is no provision for water services in the Barnett formula, between 2008/9 and 2023/24 £4.65 billion had to be taken from Northern Ireland’s departmental budgets to subsidise NI Water. This has had consequences. In part, it explains why we have the longest waiting lists on these islands. Regrettably, it is the poor who are now suffering the most while the better off pay privately for health care while some members of the medical profession become very rich.
Controversially, the Fiscal Council argues that public sector pay restraint may be necessary because the Barnett formula does not cover the cost of an equivalent pay deal in NI owing to our significantly larger public sector. There is no doubt that moving away from parity with GB would improve public sector finances.
But there are other perhaps less controversial ways of raising money and creating greater equality. Abolishing the £400,000 cap on rates and the subsidy to private landlords who pay the rates on their multiple properties in one instalment could raise around £24 million. The former has been opposed by the DUP and as a result it is now proposed to raise the cap to only £485,000. Other possibilities include the introduction of motorway tolls or Ultra Low Emission Zones and charging for vehicles which do not meet the emission standards.
The Chancellor’s recent announcement on welfare cuts, described by Polly Toynbee as ‘wheelchairs beaten into armaments’ will adversely affect disabled people in Northern Ireland, many of whom were severely injured during the Troubles.
The Executive, which is composed of political parties with widely diverging ideological views, will soon be faced with the stark choice of either mitigating the cuts to the most vulnerable in our society and raising more revenue from the better off or, more likely from past performance, doing nothing because there is no agreement.